先作为主站备份 源站:https://my.toho.red

Does the introduction of the third-child policy mean that the government is getting anxious? My thoughts on the birth rate.

Recently, things have suddenly become more numerous. First, I went to the hospital several times due to some health reasons, which delayed a lot of time. Now, due to several new cases of COVID-19 in my area, primary and secondary schools in the whole city have returned to online classes. Today is the second day of online classes, and I have some free time. With the introduction of the third child policy, I can take the opportunity to talk about my thoughts on this matter that I have been thinking about for months.

About the Third Child Policy#


The official introduction of the third child policy was on yesterday, May 31, 2021. The following is the official introduction of this policy:

On May 31, 2021, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held a meeting to listen to the report on major policy measures to actively respond to population aging during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and review the "Decision on Optimizing Birth Policies to Promote Long-Term Balanced Population Development." General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Xi Jinping, presided over the meeting. The meeting pointed out that further optimizing birth policies, implementing the policy of allowing couples to have three children and supporting measures, is conducive to improving China's population structure, implementing the national strategy of actively responding to population aging, and maintaining China's advantage in human resources.

What does it mean in plain language? It means that in the future, a couple can have three children (obviously). This policy is obviously introduced to address the insufficient birth rate. However, can this policy really alleviate the decline in birth rate? I think I have already guessed the result.

This picture is a screenshot of a poll conducted by Xinhua News Agency on Weibo. Although I can no longer find this poll (most likely it was deleted, or maybe it was photoshopped), I think the public's real thoughts are similar to this picture. Why is it that the more prosperous life becomes, the less willing people are to have children? I will try to analyze this issue from multiple perspectives.

Reasons for the Decline in Birth Rate#

Cost of Living#

The input-output ratio of an event largely determines the degree of willingness of people to do it. Everyone will use their own cognition to judge the cost-effectiveness of an event. Even if different people have different judgment methods, there are ultimately only two results: do or don't do.

When most Chinese people were still farmers, having children was considered a profitable business in the eyes of most farmers: breastfeeding when they were born, feeding with porridge or gruel after one and a half years, and they could help their parents with work at the age of six. In the process of raising a child, besides having an extra mouth to feed, parents would not feel any loss. Education was completely laissez-faire, as children would naturally learn to speak after spending enough time with their parents. Due to the deep-rooted concept of "strength in numbers" in Chinese culture, most people living in rural areas would vigorously give birth, pushing the Chinese population to over one billion, making it difficult for subsequent family planning policies to stop this trend.

People nowadays may find it difficult to understand why there was such a strong desire for childbirth at that time, but having more children meant having more labor, which was a fact. However, the world is constantly evolving, and historical nihilism should be avoided when looking at things. This situation only occurred in rural areas at that time. Now, most people live in county towns, which is a different situation. With the rise in prices (especially during the pandemic), housing prices, household registration issues, dowry issues, conflicts between mothers-in-law and daughters-in-law, and countless other problems, even getting married has become difficult. After having a child, the previous marriage problem becomes much simpler: the child is born, and they need to go to kindergarten, right? The marketing accounts keep instilling the concept that if you don't start early, your child will fall behind. Are you worried when other parents in the neighborhood are starting early? Since you have to start early, you have to send your child to a good kindergarten. However, most good kindergartens only admit students from the local community, and school district housing is a big expense. This step has already discouraged most parents. After entering kindergarten, the troubles are not over. Little Ming next door is already using imported textbooks, little Wang upstairs has enrolled in five interest classes, and little Zhang downstairs only sleeps for five hours a day. Can you bear to let your child suffer like this? When the child is about to enter primary school, if you want to enter the best private primary school, you have to spend a lot of money to enroll in special training classes for the transition from kindergarten to primary school. Parents who can persist to this step have probably invested in several houses. But this is just the beginning. How many houses can one burn in a lifetime? Therefore, couples in cities are unwilling to have children, and the cost of childbirth is definitely a major factor.

Increasingly Severe Capital Exploitation#

We all know that China is a socialist country, and the 8-hour work system is written in the labor law and must be implemented by companies. However, now, capitalists dare to openly violate the labor law and exploit workers as if they were machines. From Jack Ma's 996 to Huawei's 251, and to Pinduoduo's employees jumping off buildings, many workers have been deeply hurt. Many workers have shown a willingness to "lie flat," intending to prevent capitalists from exploiting their offspring by not having children, thereby forcing capitalists to improve the treatment of workers. Some people believe that the average salary in China is too low because there are too many people. If the population in China decreases to the level of the United States, the value of labor will increase. Therefore, they join the "lie flat" movement.

In addition to not treating workers as human beings, capitalists also try to seize the discourse power and spread the atmosphere of consumerism, squeezing out the last bit of value from people. Take female influencers as an example. Influencers like Mi Meng, Guozi Li, and Yang Li often promote the idea that "if a man doesn't spend money on you, he doesn't love you," encouraging women to ask their boyfriends for money and demanding gifts for various reasons during holidays. What if there is no holiday? No problem, capitalists can create one. For example, the 14th of every month, capitalists take every color of the spectrum and add the suffix "Valentine's Day" to it, as if there are 20 months in a year. In such an atmosphere, the desire of men to get married has also significantly decreased. After all, no one is foolish enough to prefer giving money away rather than enjoying it themselves, except for the terminally ill "licking dogs." If they can't even get married, how can they talk about having children? I am not randomly saying these things. Here are some data I found:

In 2020, the number of marriage registrations in China was 8.131 million, which is less than 90% of the peak in 2003, after falling below 10 million in 2019.

Resurgence of Revisionism within the Party#

Perhaps this paragraph can only be seen here, but this paragraph is what I really want to say. The fact that capitalists dare to brazenly challenge the labor law is no longer just a matter of wealth. If there is no corruption involved, I would swallow this computer screen right now, as it clearly violates the dignity of the law. But why do capitalists dare to do this? Ultimately, it is the shelter of revisionist elements. In my opinion, Shenzhen has already entered the fast lane of revisionism, deviating further and further from the original intention of the Party, and beginning to corrupt and deteriorate. Here, I can show you a few scenes for you to feel:

Supporting the healthy development of the private economy with greater efforts, not arresting those who should not be arrested, not prosecuting those who should not be prosecuted.

Shenzhen promotional videos encourage staying up late.

I won't say more. Feel it for yourself.

Maliciously demanding unpaid wages, voluntarily working overtime, protecting entrepreneurs' crimes... I can't believe I can see these phenomena in a socialist country. Since these things can be done, even if capitalists openly implement the 996 work system, it doesn't matter.

Reasons for the Emergence of These Issues#

Why Do Capitalists "Dare to Exploit"?#

Why can capitalists exploit so openly? In my opinion, there are several reasons:

First of all, it is not ruled out that some parvenus have infiltrated the ranks of capitalists, or those who have been in power for too long and are unwilling to lower their heads to look at the ground. These people, due to their limited knowledge reserves or a disconnect from the values of the masses, tend to view things from their own perspective and do things in their own way. In the end, they package themselves as heroes and are moved by their own fictional image. Jack Ma is a typical example of such people. Most people know that the masses are soft targets and can be easily exploited. However, Jack Ma went further and offended the hard target, openly criticizing the leaders present. As a result, Ant Group's IPO was suspended due to bypassing banking supervision, and it was recently fined for monopolistic practices. Jack Ma paid the price for his arrogance. For these parvenus, there is a saying: people often cannot earn money beyond their cognitive range. These people have either squandered all their wealth or have been severely taught by society. I won't discuss them further.

Excluding the foolish ones, the rest are shrewd. As the saying goes, "No business is honest." None of the people who can earn so much money are fools. In this way, most capitalists exploit workers legally by using their flexible minds to avoid one pitfall after another. Taking Huawei as an example, Huawei has a notorious event called the "Striver Agreement." The specific content of this agreement is as follows:

"I apply to become a goal-oriented employee who strives together with the company, voluntarily giving up all paid annual leave, voluntarily giving up non-instructional overtime pay, voluntarily giving up paternity leave and marriage leave."

When I first saw this sentence, the words "voluntarily" stood out. When I looked closely, I seemed to understand the profound meaning of "Diary of a Madman" in an instant. Yes, many workers have given up all their dignity as employees of the company in one agreement after another, and have been indoctrinated with a submissive mentality by their bosses. Over time, some of these less enlightened workers may really believe in all of this: the big promises made by the bosses, self-improvement through overtime work, and shame in leaving work on time. Another group of determined workers who refuse to work without the 9-9-6 schedule may end up "voluntarily" working 9-9-6 in any company they find casually, perhaps due to the exhaustion of frequent job-hopping, the pressure of old age, or a bad credit record.


Is it over so soon? Not only do you think so, but I also think so. However, when my mind calms down and I review the entire article I just wrote, I suddenly realize that what I wrote earlier is more of an explanation of the current situation rather than a complaint. Instead of venting emotions here, it is better to calm down and think about how to solve the problem, rather than mindlessly ranting about existing problems. In the future, I may write less about political topics and write more about interesting things in my real life and analyze trends on the internet. I hope that the next time I write about such topics, I will have a clear mind, and I hope that those friends who have been with me all along can continue to witness my growth and progress.


Ownership of this post data is guaranteed by blockchain and smart contracts to the creator alone.